Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 20.825625 22.611980 24.539656 26.784598 29.340087 32.173917 35.575534
2025-10-12 17.965830 20.390786 23.186061 26.685691 31.006702 36.245019 43.200473
2025-10-19 16.104474 18.930091 22.365214 26.935345 32.995331 40.971599 52.662991
2025-10-26 14.532566 17.556082 21.390240 26.751813 34.306508 45.005891 62.219938
2025-11-02 13.273249 16.394345 20.491888 26.467915 35.346485 48.785094 72.421848
2025-11-09 12.334323 15.530281 19.855584 26.406440 36.627042 53.114353 84.841629
2025-11-16 11.513552 14.732483 19.202518 26.197250 37.594786 57.088572 98.006016
2025-11-23 10.812023 14.029383 18.598886 25.959943 38.438100 60.986399 112.551695
2025-11-30 10.208802 13.411075 18.051136 25.724783 39.216763 64.906993 128.911338
2025-12-07 9.715065 12.909867 17.626827 25.625067 40.195375 69.428502 149.113018
2025-12-14 9.243234 12.404888 17.149443 25.372984 40.836604 73.391106 170.188967
2025-12-21 9.070690 12.333462 17.336935 26.270299 43.820392 83.389078 217.603668
2025-12-28 8.668449 11.890844 16.905560 26.043725 44.557197 88.428664 253.236997
2026-01-04 8.341609 11.545560 16.607121 26.027781 45.742606 95.052085 303.432153
2026-01-11 8.096635 11.313332 16.477035 26.309400 47.631869 104.327729 380.906521
2026-01-18 7.795462 10.973136 16.138407 26.152620 48.500889 111.019970 457.832691
2026-01-25 7.500698 10.626938 15.765086 25.888205 49.073694 117.073381 545.993084
2026-02-01 7.262068 10.359467 15.510149 25.833909 50.154449 125.342543 679.099349
2026-02-08 7.018595 10.071380 15.199588 25.633885 50.836587 132.586294 834.839572
2026-02-15 6.787959 9.793460 14.889747 25.405249 51.410257 139.781863 1033.092113
2026-02-22 6.572959 9.531838 14.593631 25.177989 51.955049 147.235267 1296.420269
2026-03-01 6.389794 9.315782 14.367906 25.081665 52.853213 156.795291 1712.593083
2026-03-08 6.198142 9.076922 14.086469 24.837448 53.293628 164.651713 2229.061474